U.S. ‘Headed in the Wrong Direction’ as a 3rd Peak Nears

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As coronavirus cases across the United States climb toward a third peak, the country surpassed a total of eight million total known cases on Thursday afternoon, according to a New York Times database.

Epidemiologists warned of a new, worrisome phase as 17 states are seeing surges unlike anything they experienced earlier in the pandemic. States including Alaska, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin reported more new cases during the seven-day stretch that ended on Wednesday than in any other week since the virus arrived in the country.

Reports of new cases are trending upward in 41 states over the last two weeks, while nine states are holding case numbers roughly steady. No state in the country is seeing a sustained decline.

Many of the 17 states seeing more new cases than ever — located mostly in the Midwest or in the Mountain West — had relatively few cases until recently. But cases are now steadily climbing. Intensive care unit beds in hospitals are few and far between in some rural communities, experts said, raising concerns about crowded facilities.

“What’s happening in the Upper Midwest is just a harbinger of things to come in the rest of the country,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious-diseases expert at the University of Minnesota.

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Already, signs of the uptick are appearing beyond the nation’s middle. In the Northeast, where cases have been relatively low since a spring surge, reports of new infections have started ticking upward again. In the South, where infections spiked this summer, the picture varies from state to state, with sustained progress in Florida and Georgia but worrisome trends in Arkansas and Kentucky.

The number of cases alone is not a full measure of the nation’s outbreak — it is difficult to compare the current numbers with earlier points in the U.S. outbreak when testing was less widespread — and deaths from the virus have been relatively flat in recent weeks, with an average of about 700 per day. But “we are headed in the wrong direction,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.

“That’s reflected not only in the number of new cases but also in test positivity and the number of hospitalizations,” said Dr. Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. “Together, I think these three indicators give a very clear picture that we are seeing increased transmission in communities across the country.”

High levels of infection in colleges and universities, Dr. Osterholm said, are serving as one source of the spread. Transmission also has been prevalent at events such as funerals, family barbecues and birthday parties, he said, adding that the comeback of sporting events and dining has also added to the spread this fall.

“Pandemic fatigue has clearly set in for large segments of the population,” he said. “This is not even an uptick, this is a major surge of cases that is happening.”

He added, “It’s only going to get worse, we have to be prepared for that.”

Even as cases increased, President Trump continued to downplay the resurgence of this virus this fall during an appearance on Fox Business on Thursday morning. He added he did not support strictest restrictions by local officials to limit its spread. “We’re not doing any more lockdowns, we’re doing fine,” he said.

But Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, also warned on Thursday morning that the increase in cases across multiple regions of the country could have dire consequences over the coming months.

“The issue is that as we enter, as we are now, the cooler season of the fall, and ultimately the coldest season of the winter, you don’t want to be in that compromised position where your baseline daily infection is high, and you’re increasing as opposed to going in the other direction,” he said on “Good Morning America.” “So we’ve really got to double down on the fundamental public health measures that we talk about every single day, because they can make a difference.”

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After an ambitious expansion of the safety net in the spring saved millions of people in the United States from poverty, the aid is now largely exhausted and poverty has returned to levels higher than before the coronavirus crisis, two new studies have found.

The number of poor people has grown by eight million since May, according to researchers at Columbia University, after falling by four million at the pandemic’s start as a result of a $2 trillion emergency package known as the Cares Act.

Using a different definition of poverty, researchers from the University of Chicago and Notre Dame found that poverty has grown by six million people in the past three months, with circumstances worsening most for Black people and children.

“These numbers are very concerning,” said Bruce D. Meyer, an economist at the University of Chicago and an author of the study. “They tell us people are having a lot more trouble paying their bills, paying their rent, putting food on the table.”

Significantly, the studies differ on the most recent month: While the Columbia model shows an improvement in September, the Chicago and Notre Dame analysts found poverty continued to grow.

The recent rise in poverty has occurred despite an improving job market, an indiction that the economy has been rebounding too slowly to offset the lost benefits.

The Democratic-controlled House has twice passed multitrillion-dollar packages to provide more help and to stimulate the economy, but members of a divided Republican-led Senate, questioning the cost and necessity, have proposed smaller plans. President Trump has demanded that Congress “go big” before the elections and canceled negotiations.

While the job market may have gotten better since hitting bottom in April, it recently flattened and is now declining again. American employers continue to shed workers at a staggering rate as a resurgent virus and the absence of new federal aid take their tolls.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that 885,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, an increase from the previous week. That figure is not adjusted for seasonal variations.

Over the past month, large employers including United Airlines, Disney and Allstate announced tens of thousands of layoffs, and more are expected as sectors like leisure and hospitality struggle. In some states, restaurants have salvaged some business by serving diners outside, but many will lose that option as temperatures fall.

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People eligible for federal coronavirus relief payments cannot be turned away just because they are in prison, a judge ruled this week, rejecting the position of the Internal Revenue Service.

In ruling in favor of two inmates who brought the lawsuit, Chief Judge Phyllis J. Hamilton of the Northern District of California said the I.R.S. decision to deny them relief payments was “both arbitrary and capricious and not in accordance with law.”

The judge, in her decision Wednesday, ordered the agency to reconsider rejected claims from people behind bars and to reissue $100 million in stimulus payments that it retracted from nearly 85,000 people because they were incarcerated. The I.R.S. reclaimed the money after issues were raised by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration.

Kelly Dermody, a partner at Lieff Cabraser Heimann & Bernstein who argued the prisoners’ case alongside Eva Paterson of the Equal Justice Society, said the ruling could make $1,200 stimulus checks available to more than one million people now incarcerated in the United States.

“This is money that is desperately needed for the most economically vulnerable of Americans,” Ms. Dermody said. “And you can’t escape the fact that much of the population at issue comes from communities of color that have been disproportionately harmed by this pandemic. It really is a racial justice question.”

A separate ruling issued by Judge Hamilton requires the I.R.S. to send notices about the decision and claim forms for individuals who did not file federal income taxes in 2018 or 2019 to all prisons in the United States, both state and federal, and to extend the deadline for new claims, Ms. Dermody said.

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said he would take a coronavirus vaccine if one became available by the end of the year.

“If the body of scientists say that this is what is ready to be done and it’s been tested, they’ve gone through the three phases, yes, I would take it, and I’d encourage people to take it,” he said.

Mr. Biden’s comments came at a televised town hall gathering in Philadelphia.

As president, he said, he would urge governors and local officials to press their constituents to take it as well.

But while he said would like to make a vaccine mandatory, he allowed that it is not possible to do so from the White House.

“You couldn’t, that’s the problem,” he said. “You can’t say, ‘Everyone has to do this.’”

President Trump, who was holding a rival town hall in Miami, was also asked about the coronavirus.

His event got off to a testy start, when he was pressed on whether he had been tested for the coronavirus on the day of the presidential debate (he said he couldn’t remember) and why he did not promote mask-wearing (Mr. Trump said, inaccurately, that 85 percent of people who wear masks catch the virus.)

The president was not shy about grading his administration’s record on the pandemic.

“We’re a winner,” he said. “We have done an amazing job. And it’s rounding the corner.”

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The Biden campaign announced Thursday that it was suspending Senator Kamala Harris’s campaign travel through Sunday after two people who had traveled with her tested positive for the coronavirus. Hours later, the campaign said a person who had been aboard Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s plane had also tested positive.

The announcements were the Biden campaign’s closest known brush with the virus. The two people who had traveled with Ms. Harris — her campaign communications director, Liz Allen, and a flight crew member — flew with her last Thursday, when Ms. Harris campaigned with Mr. Biden in Arizona.

The person on Mr. Biden’s flights who tested positive, an employee of the company that charters the plane, was aboard for trips to Ohio on Monday and to Florida on Tuesday, but was a great distance from Mr. Biden, the campaign said.

“Our campaign’s contact tracing remains ongoing, and my team will continue to share any significant developments with the American people,” Mr. Biden wrote on Twitter. “If anything, let this serve as an example of the importance of wearing masks and keeping a safe, social distance.”

Ms. Harris had been scheduled to campaign in North Carolina on Thursday and in Ohio on Friday. She will now return to the campaign trail on Monday. The campaign said she had tested negative for the virus on Wednesday and again on Thursday.

Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, said in a statement that Ms. Harris “was not in close contact, as defined by the C.D.C., with either of these individuals during the two days prior to their positive tests; as such, there is no requirement for quarantine.”

But Ms. O’Malley Dillon said Ms. Harris’s travel through Sunday was being canceled “out of an abundance of caution and in line with our campaign’s commitment to the highest levels of precaution.”

During a virtual fund-raiser on Thursday, Ms. Harris addressed the positive tests and the campaign’s response, and drew a comparison with President Trump. “We wanted to make sure that we were adhering to what has been, I think, a very appropriate and strict level of seriousness around the caution that we are exercising to make sure everyone is safe,” she said. “Obviously, it’s been in stark contrast to you-know-who.”

On Thursday afternoon, the campaign said that the person aboard Mr. Biden’s plane, an administrative employee with the charter company who had been contacted during contact tracing for the crew member who traveled with Ms. Harris, had also tested positive.

The employee was seated in the last row of Mr. Biden’s plane, a Boeing 737, on Monday and Tuesday, and was more than 50 feet away from Mr. Biden at all times, Ms. O’Malley Dillon said. “We have been advised by the vice president’s doctor and the campaign’s medical advisers that there is no need for the vice president to quarantine,” she said.

Mr. Biden will appear at an ABC News town hall event in Philadelphia on Thursday night. The campaign said Mr. Biden tested negative for the virus on Wednesday night and again on Thursday.

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Prime Minister Jean Castex of France on Thursday extended to the entire country health restrictions that had so far been imposed only in areas hard-hit by the virus. The new rules were announced shortly after the French police searched the homes and offices of several current and former officials as part of an inquiry into the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Starting Saturday, all restaurants will have to follow a strict health protocol that includes keeping registers of customers for contact-tracing and keeping seating to no more than six per table. Private parties will be forbidden in public spaces, and rules to encourage social distancing, such as limiting the number of spectators or visitors in cultural venues or customers in shopping centers, will be enforced throughout the country.

The rules are part of the renewed state of emergency announced by President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday. Other measures include a nightly curfew around Paris and eight other major cities, for at least four weeks.

Residents of affected areas will be barred from leaving their homes between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. and will have to carry a form explaining the reasons for travel during that time slot, Mr. Castex said. Permitted outings include work, dog-walking, trips for health reasons, and travel to and from train stations and airports.

Some 12,000 police officers will be deployed throughout the country to enforce the curfew, said Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin.

The move is expected to deal a fresh blow to France’s restaurant and tourism industries, which make up nearly 10 percent of economic activity. The government said it would grant up to 1 billion euros in financial aid to businesses and extend an offer of cheap, state-backed loans. Officials will also direct money to theaters and other culture operations that can’t function under the new measures, and are encouraging people to continue taking vacations and patronizing hotels.

Mr. Macron highlighted the tension between economic and health concerns as he announced the curfew. A new lockdown for an already reeling economy would have been “disproportionate,” he said, yet the pressure on hospitals was intolerable. “Our caregivers are exhausted,” he said.

The seven-day average of new cases over the past week was 17,936 on Wednesday, and intensive care units were rapidly filling with virus patients. Mr. Castex said that slowing down the spread of the virus with targeted curfews was the “only real possible strategy.”

The police searches on Thursday included the homes and offices of France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, and Jérome Salomon, a top official at the health ministry, as well as the homes of former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, the former health minister Agnès Buzyn and a former government spokeswoman, Sibeth Ndiaye.

The inquiry was launched in July by the French Court of Justice, a special court that hears accusations of government mismanagement. Over the past few months, more than 90 complaints had been filed, accusing several government officials of willfully failing to take appropriate action to combat the virus, endangering people’s lives.

The French Court of Justice examined all of the complaints but finally decided to accept only nine of them, with the charge of failing from fighting a disaster. This offense is punishable by two years of imprisonment and a fine of 30,000 euros.

The French government has been harshly criticized for its handling of the first wave of the virus, from March to May, which resulted in about 30,000 deaths. A critical shortage of masks and testing kits led to the virus’s rapid spread and prompted France to impose one of the world’s strictest nationwide lockdowns.

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London will join other big cities in Europe, including Paris and Berlin, in tightening restrictions to stem a rapidly rising second wave of coronavirus cases in the region.

Within London, the average number of cases now stands at 97 per 100,000 people, near the threshold for negotiating a move from medium to high risk alert level. Virus-related hospital admissions and deaths are on the rise.

People from different households will be barred from meeting indoors starting Saturday as the city shifts into England’s second-highest alert level, health secretary Matt Hancock announced in Parliament on Thursday. People will also be discouraged from using public transportation.

The increased measures will also apply to the city of York in northern England, as well as the Essex region and parts of central England.

The weekly number of new coronavirus cases in Europe is now at its highest point since the start of the pandemic, a top World Health Organization official said on Thursday, urging governments to impose tighter, targeted controls on social gatherings.

“We’re at a critical moment in our fight against Covid-19,” London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, said during a meeting at City Hall on Thursday.

He sharply criticized the government’s virus testing program in a statement a short while later.

“I know these further restrictions will require Londoners to make yet more sacrifices, but the disastrous failure of the test, trace and isolate system leaves us with little choice,” he said in the statement.

While Mr. Hancock on Thursday said that testing capacity was up, the government’s test and trace system has been plagued with issues. In Birmingham, a local council was found to have distributed about 25 used swab-test kits to households by mistake.

Jonathan Ashworth, the opposition Labour Party’s lead lawmaker on health issues, also criticized the testing program, arguing that the measures announced Thursday would be insufficient to halt the spread of the virus. He reiterated his call for the government to impose a national lockdown — and to provide more financial support to mitigate the impact of virus restrictions.

Hospitality and travel industries were hit particularly hard by the impact of the new rules. Shares in Marston’s, a large chain of bars and pubs in Britain, fell as much as 8 percent and the company said it was looking to cut 2,150 jobs that are currently furloughed.

The announcement came after the government published data that showed the country’s jobless rate had already climbed to a three-year high and there were a record number of layoffs in August, adding to concerns that Britain will experience a sharp rise in unemployment this winter.

The head of the World Health Organization’s Europe office, Hans Kluge, said Thursday that restrictions on social gatherings were “absolutely necessary” and that more drastic action might be needed. The number of confirmed cases in Europe rose by a million to seven million in just 10 days, Dr. Kluge warned, and the number of daily deaths has passed 1,000.

British scientists have proposed that the government schedule a temporary “circuit breaker” lockdown for the last week of October and first week of November, when schools are closed for midterm break, to make it less disruptive. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resisted the idea, maintaining his position that targeted measures are best.

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Eleven members of the Swiss Guard have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a report in The Associated Press, prompting fears of an outbreak within the small corps charged with protecting the pope.

On Monday, the Vatican said four guards were infected with the virus and showing symptoms. Now, seven more have tested positive, according to The A.P.

The brightly clad Swiss Guards provide ceremonial guard duty during papal Masses and stand at the Vatican gates. They also serve as personal guards for the pope. Established in the early 16th century by Pope Julius II, the guard is considered the world’s oldest standing army.

Pope Francis, who is 83, is known for his relatively informal, friendly relationship with the guards. He has made a custom of shaking hands with them as he leaves his suite in the morning.

The Italian daily Corriere della Sera reported on Oct. 12 that Matteo Bruni, a spokesman for the Holy See, said “all the guards, on duty and not, wear masks — outdoors and indoors — and observe prescribed health measures.”

The pope has criticized priests who resist pandemic protection measures as “adolescent.” But Vatican observers have expressed concerns about his own habit of forgoing a mask in public settings.

Last week, Francis was photographed maskless at a large indoor gathering at the Vatican, speaking closely with attendees and kissing the hands of newly ordained priests.

Surgery in his early 20s left Francis missing part of one lung, a “pulmonary deficiency,” as one biographer put it, that might make it difficult to breath through a mask.

An early center of the pandemic, Italy kept the virus mostly under control through the summer. But the country has seen a sharp rise in new cases lately, with recent daily infection rates matching the country’s peak in April, according to a Times database.

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On the afternoon of Feb. 24, President Trump declared on Twitter that the coronavirus was “very much under control” in the United States, but hours earlier, senior members of the president’s economic team, privately addressing board members of the conservative Hoover Institution, were less confident.

Tomas J. Philipson, a senior economic adviser to the president, told the group he could not yet estimate the effects of the virus on the American economy. To some in the group, the implication was that an outbreak could prove worse than Mr. Philipson and other Trump administration advisers were signaling in public at the time.

The next day, board members — many of them Republican donors — got another taste of government uncertainty from Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council. Hours after he had boasted on CNBC that the virus was contained in the United States and “it’s pretty close to airtight,” Mr. Kudlow delivered a more ambiguous private message. He asserted that the virus was “contained in the U.S., to date, but now we just don’t know,” according to a document describing the sessions obtained by The New York Times.

The document, written by a hedge fund consultant who attended the three-day gathering of Hoover’s board, was stark. “What struck me,” the consultant wrote, was that nearly every official he heard from raised the virus “as a point of concern, totally unprovoked.”

The consultant’s assessment quickly spread through parts of the investment world. U.S. stocks were already spiraling because of a warning from a federal public health official that the virus was likely to spread, but traders spotted the immediate significance: The president’s aides appeared to be giving wealthy party donors an early warning of a potentially impactful contagion at a time when Mr. Trump was publicly insisting that the threat was nonexistent.

Interviews with eight people who either received copies of the memo or were briefed on aspects of it as it spread among investors in New York and elsewhere provide a glimpse of how elite traders had access to information from the administration that helped them gain financial advantage during a chaotic three days when global markets were teetering.

To many of the investors who received or heard about the memo, it was the first significant sign of skepticism among Trump administration officials about their ability to contain the virus. It also provided a hint of the fallout that was to come, said one major investor who was briefed on it: the upending of daily life for the entire country.

“Short everything,” was the reaction of the investor, using the Wall Street term for betting on the idea that the stock prices of companies would soon fall.

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A week after New York officials debated and then imposed new restrictions on areas with rising coronavirus positivity rates, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo again seemed a bit at odds over whether the strategy to contain the virus had yet proven effective.

On Thursday morning, Mr. de Blasio said at a news conference that the efforts to contain the virus in hot-spot neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn seemed to be working, without providing specific information about positivity rates in those areas.

“We are seeing a plateauing now of the test results, and that is a very, very good sign,” Mr. de Blasio said, though he also acknowledged that “we’ve got more to do.”

Not long afterward, Mr. Cuomo said it was “too early to tell” whether enough progress had been made containing the virus in the so-called red zones — the parts of the state with the highest positivity rates and the most severe restrictions on gatherings and businesses.

The governor also emphasized that any decision to lift virus-related restrictions in New York City would fall to him, not the mayor.

Mr. Cuomo said that the daily rate of positive test results in the state’s red zones was 4.84 percent; statewide, the rate was 1.09 percent. Hospitalizations also fell in the state to 897, a decrease of 41 that followed several days of increases.

In New York City, Mr. de Blasio said that the city’s seven-day average positive test rate was 1.49 percent and noted that the city had conducted 17,000 tests in hot-spot neighborhoods since Sept. 30.

Restrictions: Major Minor

Restrictions: Major Minor

Restrictions: Major Minor

But the mayor said it was difficult for him to present accurate information about positivity rates in the hot spots in part because of discrepancies between the way the state and city measure data. (State data showed that the positivity rate was 4.75 percent across the red zones in Brooklyn and 2.15 percent in those in Queens.)

Mr. de Blasio also said that it was a bad time to grow complacent about the virus.

“There is the possibility that maybe people are discounting the second wave, and what it could mean,” Mr. de Blasio said. “Look no further than some states in this country, or to countries in Europe. You do not want to experience a second wave.”

Mr. de Blasio said that the city and state would continue working together despite their perceived differences.

“In a crisis, you try and obviously minimize differences, get on the same page, but you’re still going to have some inherent differences of views,” Mr. de Blasio said. “It’s just, the state does a different thing than the city does, but we ultimately get to a lot of agreement, move forward together.”

Restrictions: Major Minor

Restrictions: Major Minor

Restrictions: Major Minor

Credit…Pool photo by Chris Kleponis

President Trump, struggling to gain traction among voters just weeks before the election, called on Thursday for a bigger stimulus package than he had previously offered, and the White House signaled it was willing to make concessions to Democrats. But the proposals were unlikely to win the necessary backing from Senate Republicans who are preparing a far smaller bill of their own.

White House negotiators have proposed a $1.8 trillion relief package. Mr. Trump said that he wanted one that was even bigger and suggested, without explanation, that China would pay for it.

“I would go higher,” Mr. Trump said during an interview with the Fox Business Network. “Go big or go home.”

The comments came after Mr. Mnuchin said that the White House was willing to make additional concessions to Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California in hopes of rekindling a stimulus deal before the election. But the $1.8 trillion package that he has proposed has already proven to be a non-starter with Senate Republicans who have panned it as too costly, making Mr. Trump’s call for a more expensive bill another complication in the already fraught negotiations.

Investors, who have been following the stimulus talks closely, seemed unmoved by statements from Mr. Trump and Mr. Mnuchin on Thursday, with stocks on Wall Street dropping for a third consecutive day.

In the interview on CNBC, Mr. Mnuchin did not directly address the lack of support for a bill by Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, suggesting that he has been briefed on negotiations between the White House and House Democrats while acknowledging that Senate Republicans prefer a more “targeted” relief bill.

But Mr. McConnell downplayed the prospects of a larger bill on Thursday.

“He’s talking about a much larger amount than I can sell to my members,” Mr. McConnell said about the president’s comments.

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The Israeli government voted Thursday to lift some elements of its lockdown as the number of new coronavirus cases continued to decline.

The decision, which will go into effect on Sunday, will permit Israelis to go more than 1,000 meters beyond their homes without the need for a special reason, order takeout from restaurants, visit beaches, send their children to day care centers and kindergartens, and reopen some businesses.

But other restrictions will remain in place, including bans on the opening of bars, restaurants, malls, and event halls. Elementary, middle and high schools will also remain closed.

At a news conference, Yuli Edelstein, the health minister, pointed to “encouraging data” on the spread of the virus, but he said Israelis still had “a long road” ahead of them

When the lockdown began on Sept. 18 at the beginning of Rosh Hashana, the country’s seven-day rolling average was about 4,300 new cases, according to Our World in Data. As of Thursday, the number had fallen to about 2,500 cases.

Israel moved quickly to reopen the country in May after an earlier lockdown, throwing open the doors of schools, restaurants, bars and other gathering places. But experts say the government moved too hastily, allowing the virus to spread out of control.

On Thursday, Mr. Edelstein stressed that Israel would be reopened with “careful and calculated steps” in the hopes of avoiding a third lockdown.

While the latest closings appear to have helped stem the spread of the virus, they have taken a major toll on the economy. The central bank has estimated that it has cost the economy more than $2 billion per week.

Many business owners have also said that the government has failed to provide them with sufficient financial support as their companies teeter on the brink of bankruptcy.

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Remdesivir, the only antiviral drug authorized for treatment of Covid-19 in the United States, fails to prevent deaths among patients, according to a study of more than 11,000 people sponsored by the World Health Organization.

The drug was granted emergency authorization by the Food and Drug Administration on May 1 after a trial by the National Institutes of Health found that remdesivir modestly reduced the time to recovery in hospitalized. President Trump received the antiviral after he began showing symptoms earlier this month.

“This puts the issue to rest — there is certainly no mortality benefit,” said Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an infectious-disease physician at the University of Alberta in Canada.

But other scientists said the design of the W.H.O.’s sprawling clinical trial, which collected data from hundreds of hospitals, meant the conclusions were not definitive.

Conducted in dozens of countries with various health care systems and inconsistent treatment protocols, the data are difficult to analyze and compare, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.

The findings, which were posted online on Thursday, have not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal.

The W.H.O.’s study, called the Solidarity trial, enrolled 11,266 adults with Covid-19 in 405 hospitals in 30 countries. The participants were given four drugs singly or in combination: remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, interferon or interferon plus lopinavir. About 4,100 received no drug treatment.

In the end, no drug or combination reduced mortality, the chances that mechanical ventilation would be needed, or time spent in the hospital, compared with the patients who were not given drug treatment.

Still, several experts noted that some of the drugs in the trial may benefit people with Covid-19 earlier in the course of their illness.

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Fears of instability in the United States, stoked by street-level clashes over public health measures and the upcoming election, are fueling apparently record gun sales.

According to the F.B.I, the nearly 29 million background checks conducted through September of this year have already surpassed the total conducted in 2019, which was, at the time, higher than in any previous year.

Still, Precisely measuring the extent of the surge is difficult, as neither gun companies nor the government provide comprehensive national data on gun sales. However, anecdotal reports of gun and ammo shortages have been widespread for months.

Many first-time buyers say they are looking to arm themselves in anticipation of unrest. They cite heated rhetoric surrounding the election, as supporters of both President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. have said they expect a protracted fight over the election results.

But other first-time buyers and some of those buying again have said that their decision reflects general unease about growing discontent in the United States — where millions of people face permanent job losses because of the pandemic — as well as anger about public health restrictions, which has inspired armed protests in several states with open-carry laws.

Angst about the national mood has been exacerbated by several instances of actual violence during recent months, as several people have been shot and killed by fellow demonstrators during protests over policing and police violence.

Members of the intelligence community have warned of a growing threat of far-right extremism, which they said could become a greater problem closer to the election. On Tuesday, the F.B.I. revealed that a ring of 13 men had plotted to kidnap the Democratic governors of Michigan and Virginia over stay-at-home measures to control coronavirus outbreaks in those states, and that two of them were among a crowd of armed protesters who had effectively occupied the Michigan statehouse in April while the Legislature was in session.

Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump might want to wait a bit before he puts on a Superman T-shirt.

After recovering from Covid-19, Mr. Trump declared that he was now immune to the disease caused by the coronavirus and was said to have talked about wearing a superhero shirt under his dress shirt.

But if Mr. Trump is in fact now immune to the virus, he may not remain so, scientists warn. While reinfection is generally rare, the treatment Mr. Trump received may have prevented his body from making the antibodies necessary for long-term protection. The experimental monoclonal antibodies from the biotech firm Regeneron that Mr. Trump was given are synthetic, and they will most likely wane in a matter of weeks. Unless they are replenished, Mr. Trump may be left more susceptible to the virus than most patients who had Covid-19 and recovered, several experts warned.

There is another wrinkle for the president.

In addition to the monoclonal antibodies he was given, Mr. Trump also received the steroid dexamethasone. That suppresses the body’s natural immune response — including the production of antibodies of its own. (He was also given the antiviral remdesivir.)

“He may be not protected the second time around, especially because he didn’t develop his own antibodies,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University.

During an appearance on Fox Business on Thursday morning, Mr. Trump sounded hoarse and could be heard drinking a beverage between questions.

Asked if he was tested every day, he replied, “I’m not tested, not every day, but I’m tested a lot,” he said.

Given the results of the tests the White House has made available, Mr. Trump, who is appearing — probably maskless — at a town-hall-style event Thursday night, is not likely to transmit the virus to others, experts have said.

Mr. Trump praised the antibody therapy he received, falsely, as being “a cure” — then mused that maybe he would have been better “without taking anything.”

It is impossible to know whether the antibody cocktail or another treatment improved his condition. Although trials for Regeneron’s cocktail are still underway, its early data suggest the treatment can lower hospitalization rates in people who are in the early stages of the disease.

Credit…Cindy Schultz for The New York Times

The State University of New York at Oneonta on Thursday announced the abrupt resignation of its president only weeks after it experienced the most severe coronavirus outbreak of any public university in the state.

The departure of the president, Barbara Jean Morris, comes amid widespread turmoil at colleges and universities across the country as they try to maintain some semblance of campus life during the pandemic.

But Oneonta has stood out for its troubles.

Last month, more than 700 students there tested positive for the virus, leading the college to shut down in-person classes.

The fallout from the crisis led to a state review, a change of coronavirus protocols throughout the SUNY system — and now the resignation of Dr. Morris, who did not offer any public comment on Thursday.

The mayor of Oneonta, Gary Herzig, said: “I think that we all recognize that this was a time where change was needed. It’s a time for a new start.”

Dennis Craig, who recently served as interim president at another SUNY school, Purchase College, was named as a temporary replacement.

State and local officials at a news conference on Thursday announcing the change praised the efforts of Mr. Craig, who guided a successful reopening plan at Purchase, which is in Westchester County. That school has reported just seven cases at its campus of more than 4,000 students.

It is not known if SUNY Oneonta, which has 6,000 students, will reopen its campus for in-person classes for the spring semester.

Credit…Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, via Associated Press

When the University of Wisconsin-Madison announced a lockdown of two large residence halls last month, some students prepared to hunker down or fled to their bedrooms back home.

But student journalists were busy doing interviews.

“I was going into my very first college exam,” an-18-year old freshman who lived in a dorm with a major outbreak told Addison Lathers, the city news editor for The Daily Cardinal. “Do I have enough to eat? How am I going to be able to talk to people?”

American colleges have become a major source of coronavirus infections in recent weeks, Wisconsin is among a handful that have tried a drastic remedy: asking large numbers of students — sometimes the entire campus — to quarantine for 14 days in their dorms, apartments or fraternity and sorority houses.

To find out what locked-down campus life is really like, we asked journalists from school newspapers across the country to share their stories.

Some recounted threats of harsh penalties for students who violated health rules.

The editor in chief of The Bradley Scout at Bradley University in Peoria, Ill., said the administration was giving students an easy way to report infractions — the “snitch form,” as it is known on campus — and has issued $250 fines.

Other colleges have been more lax, doing little to keep students away from bars and late-night parties. Their quarantine rules allowed exceptions for a wide range of activities, including classes, work, medical appointments, grocery shopping and takeout.

On some campuses, the new approach appears to be working: Caseloads there have come down.

Credit…Sergio Perez/Reuters

In a flurry of memos released this week and last, the White House physician, Dr. Sean Conley, declared that President Trump no longer posed a transmission risk to others — an assessment, he noted, that was largely based on the results of “advanced diagnostics.”

Outside experts have also said that Mr. Trump, who reportedly began feeling sick about two weeks ago, is probably no longer contagious.

But in fact there exists no test that can definitively determine whether someone who was infected with the coronavirus can still spread it.

“We do not have a test for cure, and we do not have a test for infectiousness,” said Omai Garner, a clinical microbiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Not all coronavirus tests are designed to detect the same parts of the virus. And a negative on one test does not necessarily guarantee a negative on another.

As recently as Tuesday, for instance, a rapid antigen test called the BinaxNOW was unable to detect the coronavirus in Mr. Trump. But results yielded from a laboratory test, which used a slower but more accurate technique called polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., showed he still carried genetic material from the virus at low levels in his body.

“We don’t just look at these tests in the context of ‘Coronavirus, yes or no,’” said Karissa Culbreath, a clinical microbiologist at TriCore Reference Laboratories in New Mexico.

There is no definitive threshold at which researchers can say someone is or is not infectious, she said, and it’s very possible to be antigen negative but P.C.R. positive.

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