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Newly released short-term COVID-19 forecasting shows that by Nov. 8, Canada could see between 10,285 and 10,400 deaths, and between 251,800 and 262,000 cases.
When looking at how the epidemic may evolve in Canada over the next month, the key message from Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, is that Canadians need to limit their contacts.
“If we increase or if we even maintain our current rate of contact with others, the epidemic in Canada is forecasted to continue increasing steeply,” Dr. Tam said. “To bend the epidemic curve and reduce transmission to lower levels…we must really reduce our number of contacts as much as possible.”
She indicated that this includes limiting everyday contacts to our households, as much as possible, maintaining physical distancing, good hygiene practices and in areas where the infection rate is high, restrictions and closures may be needed for a period of time to slow the spread of the virus.
“We held our lead on COVID-19 for some time but since resuming more activities over the summer and perhaps slipping on a few of our key dance steps — consistent physical distancing, exemplary hygiene and mask wearing — some of us have lost our lead,” Dr. Tam said. “I know Canadians can dance and take back the lead again.”
“This virus will cut in anywhere and at anytime we let it. So let’s get back in the dance and take the lead.”
Canada’s COVID-19 cases remain above “peak levels” in the first wave in the spring, with an average of almost 2,800 cases reported daily in the past week. Ontario and Quebec significantly impact the national curve with over 75 per cent of all cases in Canada since the beginning of the pandemic.
“The growth in Quebec case counts has appeared to gradually stabilize but still averaging around 1,000 cases daily during recent weeks,” Dr. Tam highlighted. “At the same time, over the past two weeks, British Columbia, the Prairie provinces and Ontario have all marked their highest daily case counts since the beginning of the pandemic.”
As of Oct. 8, 19 health regions reported more than 50 cases per 100,000. That number had almost doubled by Oct. 27, with 34 health regions reporting more than 50 cases per 100,000.
Dr. Tam also highlighted that 26 Indigenous communities are now reporting two or more active cases.
Although COVID-19 cases have mostly been seen in Canadians between the ages of 20 to 39 recently, Canada is now seeing a “concerning rise” in incidents among people 80 years of age and older, which are particularly at risk of severe illness